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AGOA ends, tariffs climb

by Robert Duigan | Jul 10, 2025

Meeting Trump's four conditions for ending the tariffs would also end racial discrimination. But the DA kept them secret and refused to pressure the ANC

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Donald Trump’s 30% tariff on South African exports is hitting us at the end of the month. At the risk of beating what is not so much a dead horse as a large macerated horse burger, this was entirely avoidable.

Though precisely how avoidable it was is another question. Without the recent tour of Washington undertaken by Dr Corné Mulder, Gerhard Papenfus and Theo de Jager, we wouldn’t be aware of the fact the United States presented South Africa with an ultimatum – ditch BEE or we sanction you (more or less).

Specifically, Washington sees BEE as a non-tariff trade barrier (which it is). Sakeliga has recently framed BEE as economic sanctions against minorities, and apparently the United States (being a country with a fair number of white businessmen) sees it the same way too.

So what did the three amigos do for us? Well when Theo de Jager of SAAI, Dr Corné Mulder of the VF+ and Gerhard Papenfus of NEASA went off to Washington, they brought back information about the conditions imposed on South Africa for the permanent suspension of punitie trade tariffs. It contained four conditions;

Classify farm attacks as priority crimes (like rhino poaching or cash in transit heists)
Public condemnation of the “Kill the Boer” chant by the ANC itself
No land expropriation without fair market compensation
Exemption of U.S. entities from Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) and Employment Equity requirements

That latter point is excellent, because it would set up a legal mechanism for destroying BEE and EE overnight – under South African law, both constitutionally and legislatively (Promotion of Administrative Justice Act), no policy can be administered to one group of people and not another. Any carve-out for American companies would, by law, have to be extended to non-Americans.

So it’s no surprise the ANC

After declaring the new “reciprocal” tariff rates for all countries around the world, somewhat roughly adjusted to the level of trade deficit between the US and each trading partner, Trump then announced a temporary amnesty from these tariffs to allow for negotiation. Doing about a hundred bilateral trade agreements at a time after you’ve stripped down State Department staff is likely going to cause hiccoughs, but that’s a problem for America.

The problem for us is the fact that we did nothing with that time. Ramaphosa has sat on his hands and done nothing, because it really doesn’t matter how poor the people get, even if the economy goes down, the government stays. Zimbabwe and North Korea may suck, but government life is cushy as ever.

The DA could well have publicised these preconditions, and used them as leverage against the ANC, but instead, they attacked all the government’s critics, and protected the ANC.

The new tariffs target industries such as agriculture (nuts, wine, citrus), automotive (25% tariff), and steel (50% tariff), raising export costs, straining outdated automotive technology against Chinese competition, and accelerating steel sector de-industrialization. Given that we have a trade surplus with the US (now in jeopardy), and a trade deficit with other major countries, it doesn’t seem like we will be able to make up the difference, and with a dearth of skilled workers and a miserably overregulated and over-unionised labour market.

A weaker rand might boost exports, and tariff pressure could drive business innovation and productivity. But a weaker Rand jeopardises our ability to raise money in Rands, which over time will increase the amount of debt denominated in foreign currencies – debt that can’t be printed away without liquidating the economy.

And what’s the DA’s plan? Stay quiet, stay the course, sam speed ahead. With Mashatile breathing down Ramaphosa’s neck, it seems unlikely that even that miserable standard can be met.

Independent news and opinion articles with a focus on the Western Cape, written for a more conservative audience – the silent majority with good old common sense.