Could we see a Drone Strike in False Bay?

False Bay has a long military history. In 1795, British and Dutch forces exchanged cannon fire during the Battle of Muizenberg. In the twentieth century, Simon’s Town Naval Base played a role in both World Wars and later became strategically significant during the Cold War in the fight against communism. Situated at the southern tip of Africa, the base overlooks key global shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

The strategic relevance of Simon’s Town has not diminished. If anything, it has increased. As global tensions rise between China and the United States, maritime chokepoints and naval infrastructure have regained prominence. South Africa recently hosted naval exercises in and around Simon’s Town involving China and its partners. A Russian vessel, the Lady R, docked there in 2022. These events do not imply imminent conflict, but they signal that False Bay sits within a widening sphere of geopolitical interest. Could we see hot naval conflict in False Bay?

This raises uncomfortable questions for South Africa and, more specifically, for Cape Town. In an emerging conflict between rival power blocs, what are we going to do?

What we do know is that large integrated systems, whether economic, political or infrastructural, will not work. History shows that decentralised societies with strong local institutions are better able to absorb disruption, including hot conflict.

Capetonians needs to wake up and recognise what is on our doorstep. This year, you and your neighbours need to form strong local institutions. Find ways to partition your community by building in-group networks that cover education, business, resources, security and media. Get to know your neighbours. Get married and have children. Stay, and do not run. Stay and build independent structures. Go to church.