The US Can Push for a new CODESA in South Africa

by | Mar 7, 2025

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Donald Brown argues there is a unique opportunity for the US to convene talks for a new political settlement in South Africa

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South Africa is unraveling, and history is repeating itself. Thirty years ago, the world agreed that apartheid had to end. Today, many are coming to a new realization: the post-1994 settlement has failed.

In the early 1990s, international pressure forced South Africa’s political elite to the negotiating table. The Convention for a Democratic South Africa (CODESA) was born, leading to democratic elections. But the final settlement left many issues unresolved. The constitution failed to protect the cultural, linguistic, and self-determination rights of minorities like the Zulus and Afrikaners. Worse, the ANC manipulated loopholes to consolidate power, sidelining opposition forces while advancing its National Democratic Revolution.

As Dr. Anthea Jeffery documented, figures like Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi of the IFP, who wanted to boycott the election over the terms of the settlement, were warned that doing so could cost him his life—a threat that carried weight given the violence that marked the negotiation process.

Not exactly an auspicious start for what is often called one of the “best constitutions” in the world.

Now, thirty years later, South Africa is on the same downward trajectory. Crime is rampant, corruption is endemic, the economy is stagnant, and racial policies continue to divide rather than unite. The very fabric of the nation is fraying. Why not learn from past mistakes? As the saying goes, never waste a good crisis.

A new CODESA is needed—one that does not simply hand power to one dominant party but truly accommodates South Africa’s diverse communities. This time, it must include real discussions on self-determination, federalism, and constitutional reform.

The United States has the power to push for this. Washington, with its influence over global institutions and its historical role in shaping South Africa’s transition, can insist on a new national dialogue. It can rally allies like the UK, the Netherlands, Australia, and New Zealand to support this initiative. Even President Ramaphosa has spoken about a national convention to discuss the future of the Government of National Unity (GNU). Why stop there? Why not push for something truly impactful—something with real international legitimacy?

The world once helped South Africa transition from apartheid. Now, it has a moral obligation to help South Africa transition from a failing post-apartheid order to a system that truly works for all its people.

Instead of standing by as South Africa collapses under the weight of its failed settlement—or worse, condemning it with punitive measures—the international community must step up. Decades ago, it celebrated South Africa as a success story. Now, it has the opportunity to help shape a future that truly delivers on that promise.

A real, lasting solution is possible. But it requires courage, leadership, and a willingness to act before it’s too late. The time for a new CODESA is now. Will the world answer the call?

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