Ward 11 in Swartland goes to PA in by-election

The PA has managed to hold onto their seat in Swartland Ward 11 in Malmesbury This was the last by-election scheduled before November when the country goes to the polls for the Local Government Elections, and such is probably the last major indicator we’re going to get for the lay of the land before the curtain call.

After Pypers passed away in 2024, there was a big change. The PA captured the seat from the DA by a razor-thin margin of just 28 votes, securing 40% of the vote compared to the DA’s 39%, with an independent candidate taking about 11% and the ANC around 5%, disappearing from significance. This marked the PA’s first-ever seat on the Swartland council. Dihno White was the PA councillor who had won the seat in the April 2024 by-election. He lost his party membership and was removed, though early statements claimed he “resigned.”  There are no news articles, statements or social media posts explaining why, though he clearly seems to have done something to irritate the party.

The 10 June 2026 by-election confirmed the shift was real, and the PA not only retained the ward but significantly strengthened its position, winning 53.26% of the vote against the DA’s 42% and the ANC’s 4%. Turnout rose from 2300 (48% of registered voters) to 2589 (58%). The by-election was triggered after the PA terminated the membership of its sitting councillor, though it isn’t known exactly why.

What does it mean?

Notable here is that the PA are again capturing votes from former ANC and small party supporters rather than from the DA. this can be seen in the George by-elections earlier this year, where the PA won seats by scooping up votes from former GOOD and PBI supporters, while the DA vote share grew by an average of 9% across the two wards contested there. Their gains are still limited to the hinterland municipalities rather than the Metro, where the “brown identity” vote is still restricted to GOOD and the NCC. Allegedly this is due to a gang beef PA leader Gayton MacKenzie has with a major Cape Town figure, but this is hard to confirm.

Ultimately the pattern we are looking at in the Cape hinterlands is that the rural brown vote is consolidating behind the PA, while Charterist (ANC, EFF) vote continues to fall off a precipice into nothing. But that consolidation may be a significant threat to the DA even if nothing else changes, as it will guarantee several seats to the populist newcomers, and likely upset several municipalities where the DA are holding onto slim margins.