Why Simon’s Town penguins may disappear by 2035

At first glance, the penguins of Simon’s Town appear secure. Tourists crowd the boardwalks at Boulders Beach, cameras raised, while the birds shuffle between sea and sand. Yet behind this postcard image lies a stark reality. Scientists and conservation groups increasingly warn that these penguins may disappear from the wild within little more than a decade.

African penguins once numbered in the millions along the southern African coast. The species has declined by more than 95% over the past century. At current rates of decline, multiple peer-reviewed studies and conservation organisations conclude that African penguins could be extinct in the wild by 2035.

Simon’s Town, home to the best-known mainland colony, is not exempt. The Boulders Beach colony currently supports between 900 and 1,000 breeding pairs. While this makes it one of the largest remaining colonies, it is still small in ecological terms. Recent counts show numbers are no longer growing and have begun to move downward again. Scientists caution that once colonies fall below a certain size, recovery becomes increasingly unlikely.

One driver of the decline is food scarcity. African penguins depend almost entirely on sardines and anchovies. Over the past two decades, these fish stocks have collapsed around key breeding areas due to industrial fishing, driven in part by quota corruption in South Africa. Penguins now travel further to find food, expending more energy and returning with less to feed their chicks. Many adults skip breeding entirely in poor years.

Other pressures compound the problem. Oil pollution from shipping lanes and increased predation further reduce survival rates.  Another problem is habitat destruction driven by the densification of Cape Town (including Simon’s Town). This makes land use increasingly difficult for penguins.

Conservation interventions have begun, but is it too late? In 2023, environmental groups successfully pushed for fishing exclusion zones around several major colonies. These measures may slow the decline, but most scientists agree they are unlikely to reverse it without broader reform of fisheries management along the coast.

Crucially, no credible scientific body suggests that Simon’s Town’s penguins are safe in isolation. Projections warning of extinction by 2035 include Boulders Beach. The difference between “decline” and “disappearance” is now measured in years, not decades.

The penguins of Simon’s Town have become an emblem of Cape Town’s natural heritage. Yet unless food availability improves and the DA-led City Council stops densifying Cape Town, they may survive only as a managed attraction or as a memory.